India's growth recovery runs into emerging-market chaos

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As per data released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO), GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 7.7 percent, as against 5.6 percent, 6.3 percent and 7 percent respectively, in the first three quarters, backed by rapid growth in agriculture (4.5 percent), manufacturing (9.1 percent) and construction sectors (11.5 percent).

The annual GDP growth for 2018-19 is projected at 7.4% by the participating economist; with a minimum and maximum range of 6.9% and 7.5% respectively. But they have identified higher crude oil price and its impact on inflation, current account deficit and overall growth as risk factors that are expected to weigh on the RBI's (MPC), which meets next week.

It said the gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.7 per cent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2017-18 clearly shows that Indian economy is on an uptrend.

If the poll is right, January-March would have the fastest expansion since before the government's surprise decision in November 2016 to scrap high-value currency notes and a botched implementation of a goods and services tax (GST) in July a year ago stalled growth.

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This is unedited, unformatted feed from the Press Trust of India wire.

Modi this year invited the leaders of all 10 Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries to India Republic Day parade in New Delhi, the biggest such gathering of foreign leaders at the event. The International Monetary Fund expects economic growth could reach 7.4 percent in 2018/19.

India has been swept up in the maelstrom that's hit emerging markets as rising USA interest rates and a stronger dollar prompt investors to pull money out of stocks and bonds. "The growth is likely to realise from pick-up in consumption, especially rural consumption, with the forecast of normal monsoon, increased public sector spending and uptick in performance of the manufacturing sector in coming quarters".

Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg said the government is not cutting its FY19 growth forecast of 7.5 per cent.

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Sampath Reddy, CIO, Bajaj Allianz Life said GDP growth Q4 FY18 came in above expectations at 7.7%, on the back of gross fixed capital formation (or investments).

"As India imports over two-thirds of its crude requirement, any surge in crude prices has the potential to upset growth projection", he added.

About 40 percent of economists polled by Reuters expected a rate rise next week, driven by higher inflation at 4.58 percent in April, above the Reserve Bank of India's target of 4 percent for the sixth month in a row.

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